Should a petition calling for a General Election four months into Labour’s term really be cause for panic? - Jayne Dowle

Tory voter Westwood, 40, launched his plea on a WhatsApp group for friends and it took off virally, even attracting the attention of Elon Musk, billionaire owner of X (formerly Twitter) – who declared on Sunday: “The people of Britain have had enough of a tyrannical police state.”

Westwood, a former drayman and groundworker, says he believes voters feel “betrayed” by Labour, with manifesto pledges turning out to be “nothing like what was promised”.

His fury, he admits, was sparked by the Budget, which despite promising 1p off a pint will actually increase costs for publicans – and customers – because of the rise in the minimum wage and employers’ National Insurance contributions.

Prime minister Sir Keir Starmer must be wondering if it’s possible to block-book that escape room he took his daughter to for her birthday. How do you argue with such a populist surge when your idea of reaching out to the people is to appear on This Morning sharing cringeworthy titbits of family life and a recipe for pasta bake?

It doesn’t cover up the fact that the PM seems to have been out of the country more than he’s been at home, taking a reported 14 international flights to 10 countries since taking office.

However, should a public petition calling for a General Election four months into Labour’s term really be cause for panic? Long-in-the-tooth political observers point out that the UK’s longest-serving prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, was certainly not universally popular immediately after her 1979 Conservative victory. She divided opinions, the nation, and even families, but soldiered on until resigning in 1990.

“You cannot seriously read public sentiment off the back of a petition,” cautions polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice.

Good point, but it’s not just a petition. Polling data suggests that voters are seriously unimpressed with Starmer’s government. In early October, YouGov found almost half were already disappointed with performance so far. Six out of 10 overall disapproved of the party’s record, while only three in 10 Labour voters felt it had done as well as they had hoped.

Then a snap post-Budget YouGov poll found only 20 per cent of the public believed it would leave the country better off, compared to 38 per cent who thought it would make things worse. A quarter said they expected the Budget would make no difference. Active dislike or total disaffection; the optics (excuse the pun) aren’t looking good.

Signatures added to the petition are also being analysed as location-specific data, so it’s possible to see from an online map where the highest levels of support are coming from. At the time of writing Brentwood and Ongar and Castle Point, both Tory-held seats in Essex, were enjoying the highest level of support, with more than 8 per cent of the electorate adding their names to the call for a re-match.

In our region, it’s perhaps not surprising – given recent protests by farmers and rural campaigners – that the petition seems most popular in former PM Rishi Sunak’s Richmond and Northallerton constituency (7.4 per cent of voters have signed the petition), and neighbouring Thirsk and Malton (7.2 per cent), where Shadow Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities Kevin Hollinrake is MP.

However, there’s considerable support across Yorkshire and the Humber, including in Selby (6.1 per cent), where last year Starmer focused his campaigning on affordable housing. His namesake Keir Mather became the (then) youngest MP at the age of 25, after winning the Selby and Ainsty by-election, overturning a 20,137 Conservative majority.

All of this should sound very loud warning bells to a Prime Minister fortunate enough to have a huge Commons majority. Despite this, he cannot afford to take anything for granted. There have already been grumblings about the UK’s electoral system not delivering effectively. Data shows trust and confidence in Britain’s system of government is at a record low.