Tony Earnshaw: Star-gazing in a bid to find the Oscar luminaries of 2011

So it's time to dust off my trusty crystal ball and look ahead to what could be lining up to be the big hitters of 2011.

I have a vested interest in The King's Speech, the Colin Firth/Geoffrey Rush film about King George VI's stammer, which has opened well at several major international film festivals, including the one at Leeds.

I slaved on that film as an extra for two freezing days and am reliably informed that I can be clearly seen in the end product... for precisely half a second. Yes, half a second.

Mr Firth, I am told, is exceptionally good throughout the remaining 118 minutes and could be in line for his second consecutive Oscar nomination. Director Tom Hooper is also said to be in with a chance of glory.

Veteran Robert Duvall – he'll be 80 next year – is said to be as good as he's ever been in Get Low, playing a secretive hermit.

Annette Bening, another Hollywood favourite, is a contender for her role as a lesbian mother in The Kids are All Right.

Then there's Nicole Kidman, as a grieving mother, in Rabbit Hole. James Franco, playing the trapped climber who cut off his own arm to be free in Danny Boyle's Slumdog follow-up, 127 Hours (adapted from Aron Ralston's book by Yorkshire's own Simon Beaufoy), is also being touted as a potential front-runner.

There are some strong films around and already the talk is of a fair fight between the likes of David Fincher (for The Social Network), Ben Affleck (for The Town), Darren Aronofsky (for Black Swan) and the aforementioned Tom Hooper and Danny Boyle.

Fincher is revered in Hollywood and has yet to carry off an Academy Award. Aronofsky has never been nominated despite a solid body of intelligent work. Affleck is fast earning a reputation as an actor's director.

Then there are the outside bets. ber-serious Christian Bale is picking up good press for The Fighter, Helen Mirren is a female Prospero in The Tempest, and Gwyneth Paltrow, as a country singer seeking a comeback, is reportedly superb in Country Strong even though few have yet seen it.

But it's all a lottery. I remember the tacky campaign to win Chill Wills an Oscar for his supporting role in John Wayne's patriotic epic, The Alamo. The notorious advert in the Hollywood Reporter ran: "We of the Alamo cast are praying harder than the real Texans prayed for their lives in the Alamo for Chill Wills to win the Oscar." Ouch.

That's how not to win; the Oscar went to Peter Ustinov for Spartacus.