Why Boris Johnson deserves this final chance despite Downing Street party lies – Bill Carmichael

The big question now is has he done enough to get out of the hole he has dug for himself with a series of serious blunders in recent months?

Boris Johnson’s ‘partygate’ and ‘bring your own booze’ defence is risible after PMQs apology – The Yorkshire Post says

Many of the signs look increasingly grim for the Conservatives – not least Labour posting a massive 10-point lead in an opinion poll this week. And although calls for him to resign from Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer can be dismissed as politics as normal, an increasing number of similar calls from his own side are not so easily discounted.

Why Boris Johnson must resign over Downing Street’s boozy lockdown parties and contempt for Covid families – Tom Richmond

Despite the public display of support from members of the Cabinet, Westminster journalists have reported more damning off-the-record comments from senior Conservatives including “it’s over”, “he’s a dead man walking” and “he’ll have to go”.

All eyes are now on an investigation into various Westminster parties and other gatherings conducted by senior civil servant Sue Gray, who could well give the coup de grâce on Johnson’s political career when she delivers her report.

But there are a number of factors pointing to Johnson surviving, for the short term at least. The biggest thing in his favour is the simple matter of timing.

One thing we have learned about the Conservatives is that they are a ruthlessly efficient election winning machine. If this were a general election year then Johnson would be out of Number 10 within days, but the Government is highly unlikely to go to the polls this year.

Similarly, for the same reason, a general election is unlikely in 2023 and it could be as late as May 2024 before we go to the polls.

So even if the consensus among Conservatives is that Johnson has to go, there is no need to rush into a decision. He could stay in place, and take the blame for the inevitable losses in May’s local elections, and then if things have not improved he could leave office later this year.

That would still in all likelihood give the new leader well over 12 months in power before the voters are asked to give their verdict.

In the meantime there is little chance of the Conservatives losing power – barring a complete breakdown in party discipline at Westminster.

During David Cameron’s coalition government, and Theresa May throwing away her majority in 2017, we became used to precarious governments, always on the precipice of defeat, clinging onto tiny or non-existent majorities.

It is easy to forget that the Conservatives’ thumping election 
victory in 2019, when they claimed an 80-seat majority, changed things fundamentally. That majority will probably be whittled away in the coming years, but it still provides a very comfortable cushion for the Conservatives.

Tory MPs can afford to wait and watch, for the time being at least, to see how Johnson’s fortunes turn out in the coming months, and I suspect that is what a lot of them are doing now.

And who knows how things will look in 12 months’ time? With any luck the Covid-19 crisis will be over, and the economy will be back up and running at full speed. Already the early signs are that the Omicron wave might have passed its peak.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak may rediscover his low tax credentials, and start to reduce the burden on hard-pressed families, rather than massively increasing it.

And the Prime Minister may be able to claim credit for the vaccine roll out, the booster jab drive and for resisting calls, from Labour and some scientists, for tighter restrictions last summer and at Christmas. As a result the UK, unlike most of Europe, remains open for business.

Since he became Prime Minister in July 2019, Boris Johnson has faced two of the biggest crises in recent times – Brexit and the Covid pandemic.

No one can say he hasn’t made many mistakes including some foolish unforced errors. But I am sure that if Johnson does survive the current crisis, he will point out that on the fundamentals – the General Election victory, getting Brexit done, the vaccine and booster roll out, and not imposing more lockdowns than necessary – his instincts have proved correct.

Support The Yorkshire Post and become a subscriber today. Your subscription will help us to continue to bring quality news to the people of Yorkshire. In return, you’ll see fewer ads on site, get free access to our app, receive exclusive members-only offers and access to all premium content and columns. Click here to subscribe.