Why Sir Keir Starmer is not guaranteed election success despite Boris Johnson and ‘partygate’ scandals – Rob Potts

While Boris Johnson has floundered from one self-inflicted crisis to the next, Sir Keir has been in his element, using his experience at the bench to forensically cross examine his opponent each week at Prime Minister’s Questions.

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If an election were to be held tomorrow, the odds would surely be on Sir Keir casting off his previously “dour” and “uninspiring” image and being ushered into Downing Street with a fairly comfortable majority.

However, before the Labour leader starts thumbing through the Yellow Pages in search of an interior decorator, he may first wish to consult the history books.

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Many argue that our First Past the Post system, almost by design, guarantees perpetual Tory rule and that Labour’s brief flirtations with power have been little more than aberrations.

The plain facts over the past century certainly lend credence to that argument. Ramsay MacDonald may hold claim to being the first Labour politician to enter No 10 and actually did so three times (1924, 1929-31, 1931-35).

But on each occasion his grasp on power was short, tenuous and as part of a minority government and he was eventually expelled from the party after accepting leadership of a Tory-dominated ‘National Government’ in 1931.

Clement Attlee became the first Labour leader to claim a majority directly after the Second World War, but even the birth of the National Health Service and the modern welfare state couldn’t stop him from being ousted by Winston Churchill after just one term in office.

Yorkshire’s Harold Wilson may have captured the zeitgeist of the Swinging Sixties to claim majorities in 1964 and 1966 but, although he briefly reclaimed power in 1974, his successor James Callaghan’s only memorable achievement was to usher in the Thatcher era.

In total, if you discount MacDonald’s National Government, Labour has only managed to interrupt Conservative rule for around a third of the last century and often relying on other parties to prop up its rule.

Hidden amongst all that, there is of course an elephant in the room: Labour’s own Lord Vordemort – he who must not be named. Under the guise of ‘New Labour’, Tony Blair won a stonking majority in 1997 and two subsequent elections before handing the reins to Gordon Brown.

But given the desperation of many in the Labour movement to all but disown and disavow the New Labour era, it’s unlikely that this formula will be repeated and Starmer’s under-the radar-approach to leadership owes much to his unwillingness to either fully embrace or distance himself from either Blair or his immediate predecessor Jeremy Corbyn.

So where does that leave Labour now? There’s little to suggest that the party’s current theoretical lead in the polls is an indication that Sir Keir has suddenly found a way to ‘cut through’ with an unconvinced electorate.

Just as Johnson soared to victory in 2019, powered by the twin jets of Brexit and ‘anyone but Corbyn’, Sir Keir seems to be hedging his bets on the hope that the Prime Minister’s obvious unsuitability for high office will hand him a walkover victory. Indeed, there will be many in his party who will be demanding that the Prime Minister resigns whilst praying that he doesn’t.

The problem is that history also shows us that the Conservative Party has no inhibitions when it comes to deposing a flailing leader. Would-be successors are already distancing themselves artfully from the PM and it could well be that a fresh face may be sufficient to restore the polls to their default position.

If Sir Keir is to follow Attlee, Wilson and Blair into No 10, he may well have to do so on his own merit, rather than ghosting into the vacuum left by the hapless incumbent. Mere rhetoric and earnest cross-examination at the dispatch box will not be enough. He’s going to need some actual policies; he’s probably still going to need to broker some form of electoral pact; and he may even need to seriously consider Labour’s official position on electoral reform.

Until then, he should enjoy the moment in the sunshine that the Prime Minister’s ineptitude has provided him with, but he shouldn’t be perusing colour charts or expensive soft furnishings just yet.

Rob Potts works at Parklands Primary School in Seacroft and is the author of The Caring Teacher – How to make a positive difference in the classroom (John Catt Educational Ltd).

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