Turnout will be key to Hull and East Yorkshire mayoral election

Labour’s candidate Margaret Pinder has the power of the governing party behind her, with Sir Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves and Ed Miliband all making high-profile trips to the region in recent months.

The party will likely have the most activists and canvassers knocking on doors, particularly when you consider that Labour has few councils to defend in this round of local elections.

On the other hand, the Conservatives have swathes of councillors to defend across the country coming off a strong set of results in 2021 after Boris Johnson’ vaccine bounce in popularity.

That perhaps explains why we haven’t seen Kemi Badenoch travelling up to East Yorkshire to support Coun Anne Handley.

While the Conservatives have minimal presence in Hull, they are the largest party in the East Riding - where insiders tell me that voter turnout is likely to be larger.

The Liberal Democrats have the largest number of councillors across the two councils which make up the combined authority.

Every time I see Sir Ed Davey, the party’s leader, he makes this point to me.

He has been very present in Coun Mike Ross’ campaign, perhaps sensing an opportunity for a first Liberal Democrat metro mayor.

While Reform UK is the party with momentum, with Luke Campbell’s campaign being launched with glitz and glamour at Hull’s Connexin Live in February with Nigel Farage.

The question for voters with the Olympic gold medallist boxer is whether they want to go for a candidate who openly admits he is not a politician.

However, with a desperation for change amongst the public this could play into the local hero’s hands.

The likelihood is this will come down to turnout and organisation - with no general election to encourage people to the voting booth.

What can previous elections tell us about who will have the advantage on Thursday?

Well the East Riding had a significantly higher turnout, compared to Hull, at the last council elections.

In 2023, 29.3 per cent of voters showed up to the ballot box, compared with 21.4 per cent in Hull in 2024.

And the Hull election had the boost of being in the lead up to the general election.

This could make the difference for Coun Handley in a poll which is likely to come down to a thousand votes or less.

However, Labour sources tell me they are most worried about Mr Farage’s Reform UK.

The question is will the party - with no councillors in the region - be able to muster a sufficient ground game to get out the vote.

Mr Farage may also be directing his resources across the Humber, into neighbouring Greater Lincolnshire, where most people give Reform a better chance.

Every party has their voters across the region - the question is can they get them out to vote.