Andy Burnham analysis: scale of Makerfield victory seals Sir Keir Starmer's fate

In the early hours of this morning, that anxiety turned to delight as Andy Burnham delivered a comprehensive victory in the by-election.

Polling had suggested that the race was going to be tight between Labour and Reform.

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After all, Makerfield was a seat that heavily voted Leave and in last month’s local elections all the councillors went to Reform.

There were suggestions that votes for Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain, set up by the former Reform MP after his falling out with Nigel Farage, could hand the victory to Mr Burnham.

In the end, the Greater Manchester Mayor’s almost 55 per cent of the vote was more than Reform and Restore combined.

Labour sources had emphasised the impact of Mr Burnham’s personal popularity, and this was borne out in the result.

The emphatic nature of this victory, in an area that was one of Reform’s best second places in the 2024 general election, will buoy Labour MPs that they can take on Mr Farage.

And it means that Sir Keir Starmer’s fate is basically confirmed.

With Mr Burnham as Labour leader, MPs will have hope that they can hold onto their seats from Reform.

This will particularly be the case across Yorkshire and the North West, the so-called Red Wall constituencies.

These are the areas that were decimated by Reform in the local elections, with Labour losing councils like Wakefield and Barnsley for the first time in their history.

Jon Trickett, the MP for Normanton and Hemsworth in Wakefield, said: "The north’s voice has been heard. Andy Burnham's win in Makerfield is a victory for the Labour movement as a whole which fought a properly organised campaign to defeat the toxic anti-working class politics of the far right.

“In the wake of the by-election, it's clear that Farage and his hard right acolytes can be defeated.”

This is likely to be the opinion of a lot of MPs who will decide Sir Keir’s future, with 81 needed to trigger a leadership contest.

The Prime Minister has promised to “fight” Mr Burnham, however if polls are to be believed the Labour membership would overwhelmingly back the Greater Manchester Mayor over Sir Keir.

Mr Trickett went on to say: “There can be no more messing about.

“Keir Starmer has to immediately state a timetable for his departure as leader, as he is an obstacle to defeating Farage at the next general election.”

There is hope that Mr Burnham can attract voters who have leaked from Labour to the Greens as well as Reform.

He is perhaps unique amongst potential leadership candidates in that regard, with policies such as nationalising water and energy likely to be appealing.

The risk could come with time in No10 before any election, perhaps stifling Mr Burnham’s pledge for change.

He would not be the first occupant of Downing Street to find delivering change is far more difficult than promising it.