Analysis

Assisted dying vote helped welfare rebels organise in secret

Eventually Sir Keir Starmer was going to have to concede to the rebels.

Just days after saying he would face them down, the Prime Minister offered significant concessions which is likely to get his welfare bill passed on Tuesday.

This was the least worst option, however it leaves his authority significantly diminished.

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More than one in four Labour MPs publicly signed an amendment which would have brought down the Government’s flagship social security policy, with many others “keeping their powder dry” ahead of the vote.

How did Sir Keir get to the point where a week before a major vote he was blindsided by such a big rebellion.

This was a coalition of left and right, experienced and new MPs - some defying the whip for the first time.

It managed to creep up under No10’s radar, with rebels canvassing support in person as opposed to on WhatsApp for fear of leaks.

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Dame Meg Hillier, the Labour welfare rebel leader, speaking out against the assisted dying vote. Credit: House of Commons/UK Parliament/PA Wireplaceholder image
Dame Meg Hillier, the Labour welfare rebel leader, speaking out against the assisted dying vote. Credit: House of Commons/UK Parliament/PA Wire | House of Commons/UK Parliament/PA Wire

I’m told that the operation was coordinated by the Labour MPs who voted against the assisted dying bill - so there was already a high level of organisation within the group.

One MP accused No10 of having its “head in the sand” over the rebellion.

They said: “The whips warned them for weeks but they wouldn’t listen.

“I hope it’s a chance for No10 to reset relations with the PLP (Parliamentary Labour Party), as at the moment they just don’t understand it.”

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This has been echoed by a number of other backbenchers, who have accused Sir Keir of failing to engage with his MPs.

After three U-turns in a matter of weeks - on grooming gangs, winter fuel and now welfare - opponents are scenting blood.

Only this week, Family Business UK published constituency level analysis of the impact of the inheritance tax changes - which reveal it could decimate Yorkshire’s agricultural businesses.

The Country Land and Business Association has written to all Yorkshire MPs urging them to keep the pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves to U-turn on the policy.

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There is still a small group of Labour MPs that has been pushing the Treasury for changes, however they are not as well organised as the welfare rebels.

However, I would caution any expectation that with the Government’s weakness we can expect more U-turns.

For many rebels, this was their first time over the parapet - and many that I have spoken to do not want to threaten Sir Keir’s authority.

While they won the welfare war, there is no desire to keep destabilising the Government - which is bad news for the inheritance tax campaigners.

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