Conservatives on track for defeat in Wakefield, polling suggests

The Conservatives could be on track for a significant by-election defeat in Wakefield, as new polling suggests Labour are 20 points ahead.

Voters in the West Yorkshire seat will go to the polls on June 23, and the new figures suggest that Sir Keir Starmer’s party are set to win by some margin.

The figures come as speculation is rife about Boris Johnson facing a vote of confidence from his own MPs following the Sue Gray report into lockdown-breaking parties in Downing Street.

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The Wakefield constituency polling by JL Partners and reported in The Sunday Times is likely to make for anxious reading for Tory campaigners, with the company putting Labour on 48 points compared with 28 points for Mr Johnson’s party.

Boris Johnson during Jubilee celebrations this weekendBoris Johnson during Jubilee celebrations this weekend
Boris Johnson during Jubilee celebrations this weekend

This signals a 19-point drop on the winning Conservative performance during the General Election in 2019.

The contest has been called as a result of the resignation of Imran Ahmad Khan after he was found guilty of sexual assault.

Khan won the seat for the Tories two-and-a-half years ago, but had the whip removed in 2021 when allegations came to light, and was kicked out of the party following his conviction.

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James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners and a former Downing Street pollster during Theresa May’s tenure, said the partygate saga looked to have damaged the Tory reputation among voters.

The polling expert said the top reason swing voters in the seat gave for preferring Labour was because “Boris Johnson tried to cover up partygate, and lied to the public”. According to the company, 60 per cent of those interviewed for the survey taken online between May 13-22 had a negative opinion of the Prime Minister.

James Johnson tweeted: “The main hesitations about voting Conservative: trust, Boris, and a sense the Tories are out of touch and only care about the rich.

“All signs are that partygate has crystallised historic concerns about the Tories and turned the people of Wakefield decidedly against them.”

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The contest in Wakefield – and that in Tiverton and Honiton in Devon on the same day – will be the first electoral test for the Government since the release of Sue Gray’s report into partygate.

While there has been speculation that the Prime Minister could face a confidence vote, perhaps as soon as this week, over the issue, one Cabinet Minister has said he does not expect that to be the case.

Asked if he believes there is going to be a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson this week, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps told the BBC: “No, I don’t … actually in the round when people judge Government by the general election, rather than mid-term where it’s not unusual to see polling like this, people make a decision about whether you’ve delivered and done a good for the country as a whole.”

Asked if Mr Johnson would win a vote of confidence, the Transport Secretary said: “Yes, he will.”