Conservatives set for big by-election defeat in Wakefield, polling suggests

Voters in the West Yorkshire seat will go to the polls on June 23, and the new figures suggest that Sir Keir Starmer’s party are set to win by some margin.

The figures come as speculation is rife about Boris Johnson facing a vote of confidence from his own MPs following the Sue Gray report into lockdown-breaking parties in Downing Street.

The Wakefield constituency polling by JL Partners and reported in The Sunday Times is likely to make for anxious reading for Tory campaigners, with the company putting Labour on 48 points compared with 28 points for Mr Johnson’s party.

This signals a 19 point drop on the winning Conservative performance during the General Election in 2019.

The contest has been called as a result of the resignation of Imran Ahmad Khan after he was found guilty of sexual assault.

Khan won the seat for the Tories two and a half years ago, but had the whip removed in 2021 when allegations came to light, and was kicked out of the party following the verdict.

James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners and a former Downing Street pollster during Theresa May’s tenure, said the so-called partygate saga looked to have damaged the Tory reputation among Red Wall voters.

The polling expert said the top reason swing voters in the West Yorkshire seat gave for preferring Labour was because “Boris Johnson tried to cover up partygate, and lied to the public”.

According to the company, 60% of those interviewed for the survey taken online between May 13-22 had a negative opinion of the Prime Minister.

James Johnson tweeted: “The main hesitations about voting Conservative: trust, Boris, and a sense the Tories are out of touch and only care about the rich.

“All signs are that partygate has crystallised historic concerns about the Tories and turned the people of Wakefield decidedly against them.”