York academic's caution over Putin's next move amid warnings 'we are dealing with a very unpredictable man'

Traumatising events unfolding in the Ukraine cannot be ignored at home or abroad, a York academic has warned, amid fears over the biggest conflict in Europe since the Second World War.

Dr Shane O'Rourke, an expert in Russian history from the University of York, has spoken of his alarm at yesterday's invasion of Ukraine as he cautioned over Putin's unpredictability.

The Russian President has never been more "isolated" as he is now, said Dr O'Rourke, fearing that events, once unleashed, may trigger an impact that he finds impossible to control.

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He said: "We should be very worried about this. It's a devastating and alarming turn of events. This is a terrible moment not just for Russia and the Ukraine, but for the UK and Europe as well."

Dr Shane O'Rourke, an expert in Russian history from the University of YorkDr Shane O'Rourke, an expert in Russian history from the University of York
Dr Shane O'Rourke, an expert in Russian history from the University of York
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Putin's mindset must be taken into account when considering his latest move, the senior lecturer in modern history has warned, amid his belief that 'broken promises' from the West justify action.

Alongside the Russian president's assertion in Monday night's speech that the Ukraine had no right to exist as an independent state, he argues it is clear he wants to gain control.

Dr O'Rourke said: "Putin sees himself as this historical figure who is regaining lands lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union. He sees himself as going down in history like the great Russian tsars.

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"We are dealing with a very unpredictable man, a man who by all accounts has never been more isolated than he is now. We are in a very dangerous situation which could become much worse.

"We can't pretend it's in a far away place, in a far away land that has nothing to do with us."

'Dismay'

Europe and the UK are already seeing rising oil prices, rising gas prices, and a cost of living crisis, which may only worsen under the prospect of a war, he added.

"I've never felt as dismayed as this," he said. "It's very serious and very worrying. This has been a long-timed planned, it's not a spontaneous act. He has been waiting for the right time to strike.

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"The big fear is what happens next. Putin will not want war with NATO. The problem is, things take on a life of their own. He can't control them once it is unleashed."

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