Special report: Sir Keir Starmer likely to face biggest rebellion yet on welfare

They are set to reduce the benefits bill by around £5bn by 2029-30 through changes to personal independence payments (Pip), which help people with disabilities pay for the increased cost of living, amid a raft of wider measures to help people back into work.

But this has already caused consternation among rebellious Labour MPs, with groups such as the Joseph Rowntree Foundation saying these will be “unprecedented disability benefits cuts”.

Around two dozen have already said they will vote against the measures, with many more expressing concerns in private.

Leeds East MP Richard Burgon, who only recently regained the Labour whip, has said the Prime Minister was facing “the mother of all rebellions”.

The 10 constituencies in the region with the highest proportion of claimants likely to be affected, are all held by Labour MPs - including several senior frontbenchers.

Gill Furniss’ Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough seat has 17 per cent people that could be impacted.

It’s almost impossible that Labour would lose any vote, given the huge majority, but the anger could have wider consequences for government, and blow it off course.

So, Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves will hope that with MPs returning to their constituencies in Yorkshire and across the UK for Easter recess, some of the heat from the spring statement is starting to fade away.

Donald Trump’s tariffs have taken over the news agenda, and the Prime Minister’s poll numbers appear to improve when he takes a leading role on the world stage.

However, there is a chance that recess could provoke a different reaction from wavering MPs.

As they settle down to constituency work over the Easter break, they’ll be pondering a set of polls that put them just a percentage point above Reform UK and a couple of points higher than the struggling Conservatives.

YouGov’s assessment following the spring statement found that 70 per cent of people think the Government is managing the economy badly.

All the while inboxes are starting to fill up with constituents concerned about the welfare reforms.

One senior staffer for a Yorkshire Labour MP tells me: “We’re getting emails from people saying they’re worried about losing their disability benefits, and we can’t say they won’t as we don’t have the details yet.

“There are a lot of new MPs and a lot of new staffers, and they’re really feeling under pressure.”

More and more mainly loyal MPs are becoming concerned about the Government’s communications strategy, which saw bungled announcements around the winter fuel allowance cuts, the two-child benefit cap and the welfare reforms.

Sir Keir’s long-time head of communications Matthew Doyle is leaving, however it remains to be seen if changes in No10 will make a difference to the Government’s fortunes.

More in Common UK director Luke Tryl tells The Yorkshire Post that the vast reduction in the, up to £300, winter fuel payment last August is still the policy which most people associate with the Government.

“The Government has been hit by a double whammy. Firstly, there is a real impatience for change,” he says.

“Labour were elected on a promise of change, and quite frankly people don’t think it’s been delivered.

“The second thing is voters would be able to weather that more easily if people knew what the defining mission was.

“People don’t elect Labour to be George Osborne, they elect Labour to improve public services.

“They’re failing to please anyone at the moment.”

Former Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Tory MP Sir Simon Clarke, who was Chief Secretary to the Treasury during the pandemic, recognises how governments can be buffeted off course by events.

“In doing the day-to-day work of government, which is often very, very hard, you sometimes lose sight of the political narrative and mission, which is critical for people to understand if you’re to win,” he says.

Pollster Mr Tryl adds that the welfare reforms risk appealing “to voters who will never vote for” Labour.

“There is no doubt, and the polling shows this, that people think that there are too many people who could be working who aren’t working,” he says.

“You also see in polling and focus groups that people are worried about over diagnosis about mental health.

“When it comes to the specifics of disability, you get lots of people saying I know someone who gets Pip and they really need it.”

The disability cuts are “not doing what the coalition who elected them expect them to do”.

MPs, who are normally very loyal, are telling me that they are unsure whether they can vote for the welfare reforms.

They feel as if the policy has been crafted to ensure Rachel Reeves meets her fiscal rules, as opposed to starting from the point of how can the Government help disabled people, and others, into work.

There are fears that more cuts could be needed if Donald Trump keeps up his tariffs.

Lord David Blunkett, a Sheffield MP and former Home Secretary under Tony Blair, says the current government “have a much, much bigger challenge” than New Labour faced in 1997.

However, he tells me there’s been a “transformation” since Christmas.

“I think the last three months have demonstrated an understanding of government, prioritisation and of confidence,” he says.

“I think, partly, Keir Starmer's presence on the international stage and what he's been able to do in pulling countries together … that has demonstrated increasing confidence.

“That then has a spin-off effect domestically. You can see the way in which Cabinet ministers are working together, the confidence in terms of dealing with these incredible issues that they're faced with.”

Jonathan Ashworth, the former MP who is now chief executive of Labour Together, tells me that voters’ priorities are still the economy and the NHS.

There’s a reason why every time I see the Prime Minister speak, from Huddersfield and Hull to Downing Street, he mentions how NHS waiting lists have come down for five months in a row.

Mr Ashworth explains that with voters who switched from the Conservatives to Labour at the last general election, their key focus remains on the economy and the NHS.

“Those two areas have to be the big animating priorities for this Government,” he says.

“For the economy, obviously we are in incredibly turbulent times and understandably voters feel insecure.

“That’s why this Government has got to pull all the levers it can to get growth in the economy.

“It’s got to look at infrastructure and investment, particularly transport investment across Yorkshire - that’s key to driving up growth and creating well-paid jobs.

“We’re now in this unprecedented period of protectionism and tariffs, and how we support our industries with a modern industrial strategy.

“I think in the weeks ahead you’ll see the Government coming out with more proposals and how to support our innovative sectors across Yorkshire.”

He believes Yorkshire’s three metro mayors are key to helping the Government deliver growth outside of London and the South East.

“I would devolve more powers and resource to our combined authority areas, such as Greater Manchester and West Yorkshire,” he says.

“I would devolve more powers around skills, more powers around planning to give our mayors a proper guiding hand when it comes to transport infrastructure.

“It’s one of the great failures of policy making over many years in this country that our city regions still don’t punch at the weight they should do.”

Echoing some of Mr Tryl’s themes, the former Shadow Cabinet minister adds: “Labour absolutely has to deliver on turning around the NHS, it’s what voters expect Labour governments to do.”

The question Yorkshire’s dozens of Labour MPs will be wondering is whether these changes will come in time to win over wavering voters.