England's only realistic route to World Cup semi-finals after Tonga defeat
England are on a wing and a prayer just one game into their World Cup campaign.
Saturday's damaging defeat to Tonga has left Brian McDermott's side facing an early exit, with England's ever-present semi-final record in serious jeopardy.
Realistically, only one set of circumstances can save them in a format with no quarter-finals and a complicated structure involving the ever-improving Pacific nations.
While there are other contenders, England essentially began the tournament competing with Tonga and Samoa for a semi-final place and are now banking on a favour from one of their rivals.
In a group stage determined initially by head-to-head records, they must wait until the final day to see if Tonga can beat Samoa.
In the meantime, England need to defeat France and Papua New Guinea convincingly enough to outscore the Samoans.
Tonga and Samoa must negotiate games against Lebanon and PNG respectively before they meet but England cannot afford to rely on a slip-up.
Points are now the currency for McDermott's men before an anxious wait to discover whether they have done enough.