The dangers of not sticking to net zero transition plans - Andy Brown
They say that if you can’t stand the heat you should get out of the kitchen. Which is pretty rubbish advice if you are working on minimum wage in a sweaty workplace and can’t afford to quit.
It is even worse advice when it comes to extreme weather events. If it is the whole planet which is heating up then you can’t exactly step off it.
What the scientists are telling us about climate change is often badly understood. They aren’t telling us things go back to being like they were if we keep global temperature increases lower than 1.5 degrees above the pre industrial level. They are telling us things will carry on getting worse but if we stick below that level then we will probably avoid the risk of runaway changes beyond anyone’s control.
If we succeed in reaching net zero by 2050 we will still have to adjust to higher overall temperature levels, stronger gales and hurricanes, wilder sea storms and more frequent heat waves.
Over recent years Britain has experienced temperatures over 20 degrees on what was supposed to be a cold February day, over 40 degrees on a late summer day that saw wildfires breaking out around London and now June temperatures a full degree higher than the record that stood since the long hot summer of 1976.
If all goes according to the plan that scientists recommended then there will be another 24 years of erratically rising temperatures before we hit net zero. Then another 20 years of less severe temperature rises before the heat trapping gases already pumped out start to stabilise at new highs.
We don’t go back to the old normal. We might, repeat might, manage to steady things down at a new high.
The best scientific prediction is that things will carry on getting worse for another 44 years or so. If we stick to the plan.
Donald Trump isn’t sticking to the plan. He is increasing dependence on oil in the hope of making more money for his backers.
Already we have reached 1.4 degrees above the pre industrial norms. The only reasonable expectation is therefore that we are going to smash through the 1.5 ceiling well before 2050. With consequences that can’t be predicted with any certainty but which will be significantly worse than recent extreme weather events. There is a serious risk of runaway warming that can’t be stopped.
The earth’s climate has often changed. Whenever it has done so through natural causes at any kind of speed large numbers of species have gone extinct. That isn’t an outcome any responsible person should shrug their shoulders and brush off as an acceptable risk.
The good news is that we have the technology to move away from the strange habit of fuelling a civilisation by burning fossils. The even better news is that almost all of that technology is cheaper to run than the old ways of doing things.
The bad news is that making that transition requires initial capital investments. Those investments bring job opportunities but they stretch the budget of governments and households.
It is entirely rational to worry about how we pay for the up front investment that cuts costs and reduces the extent of climate change. It is not rational to fear the arrival of new and cheaper technology because it rubs up against old habits.
Modern electric vehicles are staggeringly cheaper than petrol driven ones to run. The cost differential of buying one is coming down rapidly. Yet a surprisingly high proportion of the public is proving resistant to making the switch in case they make a mistake when they spend a lot of money on a new car.
It isn’t going to help reduce that nervousness over change if the government announces that it is dumping targets for the switchover and moves slowly on providing cheap local on street charging networks.
It also isn’t going to help if the government decides to authorise new drilling operations in the North Sea. We pay the global price for petrol, not the cost of drilling it locally. It takes time and money to drill for oil in dangerous deep water conditions. Once that money is spent it will take a couple of decades of pumping out oil and gas before the economics become positive.
It is much quicker, cheaper, more reliable and easier to cut bills by providing a battery for every home, school, office, hospital, and business so they can run off low overnight electricity rates. For the price of two nuclear power stations we could cut the cost of electricity for every home owner by over half.
Choices about what government invests in are critically important. Copying the backward looking policies of Donald Trump and choosing to drill baby drill guarantees that we will burn baby burn with increasing frequency.
Locking Britain into another 20 years of dependency on North Sea Oil isn’t a wise strategy of making the most of what is available locally. It is a short sighted bet on old technology.
The countries which prosper will be those which put themselves at the forefront of technology change. Britain used to be very good at that.
Andy Brown is the Green Party councillor for Aire Valley.