Reform to become biggest party in Yorkshire, YouGov predicts

YouGov has published its first multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll, seen by many as the most accurate method of polling, since the election.

It puts Mr Farage’s party as the largest in the country with 271 seats, an enormous improvement on its current tally of five but not enough to win an outright majority.

Labour is in second place with just 178 seats, losing a whopping 233 compared with last year’s general election.

While the Liberal Democrats, on 81, would pip the Conservatives into third place, with the Tories left with just 46 MPs.

In Yorkshire and the Humber, Reform would win the most MPs, taking 30 MPs and knocking out Cabinet ministers Yvette Cooper and John Healey.

YouGov predicts Ed Miliband would hold onto his seat in Doncaster North, but across South and West Yorkshire there would be a Reform wave.

Labour would be the second largest party in Yorkshire with 17 MPs, while the Tories would be left with just three.

The poll also predicts the Greens would gain their first seat in the region, winning Huddersfield.

YouGov said: “As well as winning just 224 seats between them in the central projection, the two traditional powerhouse parties of British politics, Labour and the Conservatives, would win a combined vote share of just 41 per cent, down from 59 per cent last year.

“That a clear majority would now vote for someone other than the two established main parties of British politics is a striking marker of just how far the fragmentation of the voting public has gone over the past decade.”

However, the pollster said that tactical voting could make a huge impact on the next election.

If the Lib Dems and Greens lent Sir Keir Starmer’s party their votes, Labour would beat Reform in 189 of the 194 seats where it currently trails.

The pollster added: “However, this is not necessarily so much a tactical voting story, as perhaps a demonstration of the fragmentation of Labour’s voter coalition since 2024.”