Labour at risk of missing NHS pledge, research reveals

Experts also heard that NHS trusts found themselves between “a rock and a hard place” last winter due to pressure to meet elective targets and manage urgent emergency care performance.

In January, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer pledged to slash NHS waiting lists by setting a target for the health service to carry out 92 per cent of routine operations within 18 weeks by the end of Parliament in 2029.

The new report by the Health Foundation said waiting lists are in “slightly better shape” than when the Labour Government came into power last year.

Data shows the proportion of patients seen within 18 weeks has gone up slightly from 58.8 per cent in July 2024 to 61.3 per cent in July 2025, with the total waiting list falling from 7.6m to 7.4m.

Health Foundation analysis found referrals onto the waiting list increased by 1.5 per cent between August last year and July 2025. At the same time, removals rose by 2.3 per cent.

Removals include people whose treatment is marked as complete, either because they have started or do not need treatment, or if the patient has declined treatment.

This figure also includes so-called “unreported removals”, which occur when someone is taken off the waiting list for a reason other than having received their treatment that month.

If these trends continue, the Health Foundation suggests waiting lists could fall to 4.7 million by July 2029 based on trends seen over the last 12 months, with cases waiting less than 20.3 weeks for treatment – short of the 18-week target.

Dr Francesca Cavallaro, senior analytical manager at the Health Foundation, said: “The Government has clearly made progress in reducing NHS waiting times.

“But on current trends, our analysis shows that the NHS would just fall short of meeting the 18-week standard by the end of the Parliament.”

She added: “The scale of the challenge remains significant, and even getting close to meeting the target would be a considerable achievement.

“This will require not just more activity, but smarter use of resources and continued investment in the NHS workforce and infrastructure.

“And there are several factors that could hold back progress, including if future referrals rise faster than expected and the potential impact of further industrial action.”

It comes after a British Medical Association survey which exposes the dilapidated state of the nation’s GP surgeries.

It reveals widespread concern, with mould growing in waiting rooms, treatment rooms with cracked walls and inadequate space for staff to work in.

Only half of respondents said their surgeries are suitable for use.

The BMA’s Dr Gaurav Gupta said: “This survey shows a system at breaking point. Patients deserve to be seen in safe, modern surgeries that allow GPs and their teams to focus on what matters most, but instead they are being cared for in buildings that are simply not fit for purpose and were never designed to meet modern health needs.

“Staff have told us about working out of converted containers, in cramped rooms, and kitchens that can barely fit one person, which makes it hard to provide the safe, confidential, and dignified care that patients deserve.”