Labour needs to get North's cities firing to stop Reform UK 'turquoise wave', report finds

If the Government fails to get the North’s major cities firing economically then populist parties like Reform UK will continue to gain support across the Red Wall, a new report has found.

Research by the Centre for Cities has dispelled the perception that the rise of political discontent after the Brexit vote was solely down to a widening divide between cities and left behind towns.

In actual fact, the study finds, underperforming cities - including Leeds and Sheffield - that are not creating enough jobs for their residents and nearby towns, are fuelling this discontent.

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Paul Swinney, the Centre for Cities’ director of policy and research, told The Yorkshire Post: “Big cities haven’t been doing very well, they haven’t been generating enough prosperity - and that’s why you’re seeing people voting for populist platforms.”

He cited the comparison between Ilkley and Wakefield, in terms of how residents are able to access well-paying jobs in Leeds.

“If you look at the north of Leeds going into Ilkley, these are prosperous places that draw a lot of their prosperity from Leeds, and then have lower voting for populist parties as a result.

“If you look to the south, such as Wakefield and Rothwell, people in that constituency are much less well connected to Leeds and have higher voting for Reform and Brexit as a result.

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“Jobs that are in Leeds, there aren’t enough of them - then there isn’t enough prosperity being generated.”

Leader of the Reform Party Nigel Farage campaigning in Hull. Credit: GettyLeader of the Reform Party Nigel Farage campaigning in Hull. Credit: Getty
Leader of the Reform Party Nigel Farage campaigning in Hull. Credit: Getty | Getty Images

The research comes with Reform UK on the rise in the polls both nationally and locally ahead of Thursday’s elections.

Nigel Farage’s candidates - Olympic boxer Luke Campbell and gym influencer Alexander Jones - are leading their mayoral races according to pollsters, in Hull and East Yorkshire and Doncaster respectively.

Mr Farage recently claimed the Red Wall would be replaced by a "turquoise wave” across the North.

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And unless Labour can spread inclusive growth across the country, as Sir Keir Starmer pledged before the election, this looks set to continue.

“The history of the last few elections suggests that there are people in certain parts of the country that aren’t very happy with the situation they find themselves in,” Mr Swinney explained.

“If there isn’t change in their personal circumstances they will probably continue to feel discontented and continue to vote away from the mainstream.”

Mr Swinney said the best way of doing this is helping the North’s big cities with jobs, skills and transport links.

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“Without dealing with that Labour, or in the future maybe the Conservatives, will continue to face this challenge as that is the source of this discontent, the underperformance of these cities,” he added.

This comes as financial and professional services body TheCityUK urged all candidates in the Hull and East Yorkshire mayoral election to commit to effective measures to drive regional growth and unlock the region’s full potential.

John Walsh, TheCityUK chair in Yorkshire and the Humber, said: “The mayoral elections present an opportunity to further strengthen the role of financial and related professional services in Hull and East Yorkshire.

“The industry is already a key driver of growth and prosperity across the region, providing well-paid jobs, supporting people in their everyday lives, and contributing significantly to the regional economy.

“We urge whoever wins the mayoral elections to collaborate with the industry to fully unlock its potential to boost long-term growth across the local economy."

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